The future of China's economy

https://zichun0317.tistory.com/112

These six points determine the future of China's economy!

---

4. There are many high-quality workers

 

Then there is the issue of workers. At present, the employment situation in China is also a very high concern.

 

The words "difficult situation" are the favorite words in the media industry. On the one hand, it comes from the personal experience of the urban service industry. It seems that finding a job is indeed more difficult than before.

 

On the other hand, it comes from the shrinking of high-wage industries, such as strangulation of education and training, suppression of Internet monopoly, suppression of real estate, and so on.

 

However, according to Zhaopin's 2021 school recruitment and social recruitment statistics, in fact, China's current employment status is in a dumbbell-shaped distribution.

 

That is to say, on the one hand, it is difficult for factories and enterprises to recruit workers, and a large number of job vacancies are in urgent need of manpower replenishment.

 

But in fact, most of the construction work, the wage level of factory workers is much higher than that of ordinary municipal services.

 

It's just that the words "migrant workers" and "industrial workers" are not pleasant to say, and many people are unwilling to choose.

 

At present, in terms of human resources in China, it is not the problem of insufficient jobs and generally insufficient income, but the problem of unbalanced human resource structure in the city.

 

(To make a rant from a personal perspective: the reason why people are reluctant to go to the construction site and enter the factory, because they are discriminated against by type of work and are reluctant to engage in "inferior industries", is because of lack of money.)

 

However, this state will change in the future. As social competition becomes more and more fierce, more than 10 million fresh college students enter the water every year, and the scale of industrial workers who have received higher education will become larger and larger in the future.

 

In comparison with other countries in the world at the same time, China has more high-quality workers who understand technology, higher education, and IT than the total population of some developed countries.

 

This is one of the important ballast stones in China's economic fundamentals, and it is also the most important bargaining chip for the rise of China's technological innovation, technological manufacturing and intelligent manufacturing in the future.

 

In this regard, China's capital is so thick that it is almost overflowing in the form of "too much to waste".

---

5. Sufficient market potential

 

In addition, one point that China's economic fundamentals have to mention is the huge consumer market.

 

China has a reserve of nearly 600 million middle-income households and a consumer population of 1.4 billion, which is unique in the world.

 

The domestic market size of China is almost the same as that of the whole of Europe.

 

These domestic demand markets, due to the epidemic and other reasons, have actually been in a state of long-term suppression.

 

Because of the strong epidemic control policy, the overall operation of Chinese society has remained stable, and there has been no large-scale family bankruptcy in the face of sky-high medical expenses due to epidemic infection.

 

If we carefully study the economic contradictions under the current epidemic, we will find that China's economic pressure is not due to the shortage of social supply caused by insufficient productivity.

 

Nor is it because of a consumer collapse caused by a large number of bankrupt citizens.

 

It is the inconvenience of consumption and the slowdown in production caused by the epidemic lockdown.

 

China's current economic pressure is not because the fundamentals at the bottom cannot stand up, but because the policies at the top are suppressed.

 

The core of everyone's demands is basically "unblock as soon as possible, work as soon as possible, and consume as soon as possible".

 

Therefore, China's economic system is like a volcano at present. The main contradiction is not "the contradiction between weak production capacity and consumption capacity", but "the contradiction between a large number of suppressed production and consumption desires and epidemic prevention and control." .

 

Once the epidemic is over and special vaccines are popularized, when the pressure of epidemic prevention and control is reduced, these suppressed production and consumption desires are likely to show a volcanic retaliatory rebound.

---

6. High foreign investment attraction

 

At present, the international situation is actually more favorable to China.

 

Compared with the high dollar inflation and the unstable global situation, China, with stable social operation, in place epidemic prevention measures, complete industrial structure, stable food supply, and a high growth rate of global transactions and a firm neutral and objective stance, is already a safe haven. Ballast stone.

 

From the perspective of the securities market, the overall valuation of China’s A-shares is currently lower than that of the overseas market, and the dividend yield of CSI 300 is basically equivalent to that of 10-year treasury bonds, which objectively forms a gold-absorbing depression for global securities capital.

 

Although in terms of the stock review news and media traffic of "saying things on a day-to-day basis", news of "foreign capital flight" is always reported.

 

However, according to the official statistical report of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the global cross-border capital liquidity is on the rise this year. According to the statistics of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market transactions, there was a net inflow of foreign capital in January, February and April this year. Only March was divided into foreign capital. net outflow.

 

From the statistics of allocation structure, foreign capital allocation and long-term funds have maintained a net retention state this year.

 

Foreign investors are strategically increasing their holdings of high-quality A-share assets in .

 

At the same time, at the entity level, from January to April 2022, my country's actual use of foreign capital increased by 20.5% year-on-year, and 185 new large-scale projects with contracted foreign capital of more than 100 million US dollars were added.

 

What concept?

 

That is to say, an average of 1.5 large-scale foreign-invested projects with more than US$100 million or more are implemented every day.

 

These foreign capitals that landed are not in the stock market today and tomorrow's hot money, but real factories and laboratories, and real money and silver assets are smashed into China.

 

All of them are not ready to leave after they come, including German Volkswagen, American Costco, Tesla, and various medium-sized multinational companies.

 

This is a reflection of the resilience of China's fundamentals.

 

Therefore, personally, I value these really supportive economic structures. I believe that as long as these real fundamentals are improving for a long time, the current economic downturn is a technical step back . The end of the temporary suppression of trade demand under the turmoil, a large-scale rebound is bound to follow.

 

At this time, the Chinese economic market, which is about to bottom out, seems to me to be a lot of "broken" value depressions.